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2011 Research Agenda: Quantum Cloudiness, Supervillan Shields, and No-BS Risk

By Rich

In my last post I covered the more practical items on my research agenda for the coming year. Today I will focus more on pure research: these topics are a bit more out there and aren’t as focused on guiding immediate action. While this is a smaller percentage of where I spend my time, overall I think it’s more important in the big picture.

Quantum Datum

I try to keep 85-90% of my research focused on practical, real-world topics that help security pros in their day to day activities. But for the remaining 10-15%? That’s where I let my imagination run free.

Quantum Datum is a series of concepts I’ve started talking about, around advanced information-centric security, drawing on metaphors from quantum mechanics to structure and frame the ideas. As someone pointed out, I’m using something ridiculously complex to describe something that’s also complex, but I think some interesting conclusions emerge from mashing these two theoretical frameworks together.

Quantum Datum is focused on the next 7-10 years of information-centric security – much of which is influenced by cloud computing. For me this is an advanced research project, which spins off various real-world implications that land in my other research areas. I like having an out-there big picture to frame the rest of my work – it provides some interesting context and keeps me from falling so far into the weeds that all I’m doing is telling you things you already know.

Outcomes-Based Risk Management and Security

I’m sick and tired of theoretical risk frameworks that don’t correlate security outcomes with predictions or controls. I’m also tired of thinking we can input a bunch of numbers into a risk framework without having a broad set of statistics in order to actually evaluate the risks in our context. And if you want to make me puke, just show me a risk assessment that relies on unverified vendor FUD numbers from a marketing campaign.

The idea behind outcomes-based risk management and security is that we, to the best of our ability, use data gathered from real-world incidents to feed our risk models and guide security control decisions. This is based on similar approaches in medicine which correlate patient outcomes to treatments – rather than changes in specific symptoms/signs. For example, the question wouldn’t be whether or not the patient has a heartbeat when the ambulance drops them off at the hospital, but whether or not they later leave the hospital breathing on their own. (With the right drugs you can give a rock a heartbeat… or Dick Cheney, as the record shows).

For security, this means pushing the industry for more data sets like the Verizon and Trustwave investigation/breach reports, which don’t just count breaches, but identify why they happened. This needs to be supplemented by additional datasets whenever and wherever we can find and validate them.

Clearly this is my toughest agenda item, because it relies so heavily on the work of others. Securosis isn’t an investigations firm, and lacks resources for the kinds of vigorous research needed to reach out to organizations and pull together the right numbers. But I still think there are a lot of opportunities to dig into these issues and work on building the needed models by mining public sources. And if we can figure out an economically viable model to engage in the primary research, so much the better.

The one area where we are able to contribute is on the metrics model side, especially with Project Quant. We’re looking to expand this in 2011 and continue to develop hard metrics models to help organizations improve operational performance and security.

Advanced Persistent Defense

Can you say “flame bait”? I probably won’t use the APD term, but I can’t wait to see the reactions when I toss it out there.

There are plenty of people spouting off about APT, but I’m more interested in understanding how we can best manage the attackers working inside our networks. The concept behind advanced defense is that you can’t keep them out completely, but you have many tools to detect and contain the bad guys once they come in. Some of this ties to network architectures, monitoring, and incident response; while some looks at data security.

Mike has monitoring well covered and we’re working on an incident response paper that fits this research theme. On top of that I’m looking at some newer technologies such as File Activity Monitoring that seem pretty darn interesting for helping to limit the depth of some of these breaches. No, you can’t entirely keep them out, but you can definitely reduce the damage.

I’m debating publishing an APT-specific paper. I’ve been doing a lot of research with people directly involved with APT response, but there is so much hype around the issue I’m worried that if I do write something it might spur the wrong kind of response. The idea would be to cut through all the hype and BS. I could really use some feedback on whether I should try this one.

In terms of the defense concepts, there are specific areas I think we need to talk about, some of which tie into Mike and Adrian’s work:

  • Network segregation and monitoring. When you’re playing defense only, you need a 100% success rate, but the bad guy only needs to be right once – and no one is ever 100% successful over the long term. But once the bad guy is in your environment, with the right architecture and monitoring you can turn the tables. Now he needs to be right all the time or you can detect his activities. I want to dig into these architectures to tighten the window between breach and detection.
  • File Activity Monitoring. This is a pretty new technology that’s compelling to me from a data security standpoint. In non-financial attacks the goal is usually to grab large volumes of unstructured data. I think FAM tools can increase our chances of detecting this activity early.
  • Incident response. “React Faster and Better”, which we are in the middle of writing up.

There’s probably more to do on this topic, but I think those topics alone, plus trying to keep up with attacker techniques, will keep me busy.

I realize this is a pretty ambitious list – especially when you add in the bits and pieces of research assigned to me on Mike and Adrian’s agendas, but odds are I’ll hit something in all these areas, and even if I don’t publish papers on everything this is what I’ll be researching on the back end and talking to clients about.

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Comments

Rich
I say write a paper on APT. As a marketing professional in IT Security we all have the tendency to jump onto the latest greatest hot topic, even though many of us may not fully understand what it means. I have seen APT thrown out in the market and positioned as the 2nd coming.

Many think APT is only related to national security issues, and still more associate it with only a nation state attacking a private company ala China-Google. I think we all need a chill-pill and some understanding and perspective on what it really means to the average company.

I have always taken APT to mean a larger shift is afoot where more targeted, and sophisticated malware is coming at companies with the goal of gaining valuable information (i.e Intellectual property).

Are these risks only for large multinationals? Are there risks for smaller businesses? How should I change my current approach to IT security as a result? Or is it all just overhyped marketing lingo?

I think a pragmatic point of view would be welcomed.

By Ed


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