Updated- based on a challenge in email, and redoing some math, I’m going out on a limb and revising my market projections down. My best guess is the market will do closer to $80M this year, unless Q4 is unusually strong. I’ve been covering the Data Loss Prevention/Content Monitoring and Filtering space pretty much since before it existed and it’s been pretty wild to watch a market grow from its inception to early mainstream. It’s also a weird experience to stand on the sidelines and watch as all the incredibly hard work of contacts in various vendors finally pays off. As complex and not-quite-mature as the market is, I’m still a fan of DLP. If you go in with the right intentions, especially understanding that it’s great for limiting accidents and bad processes, but not all that good against malicious threats, you’ll be able to reduce your risk in a business-friendly way. It helps solve a business problem, does it reasonably well despite needing some maturity, and has the added benefit of giving you good insight into where your data is and how it’s used. I’m predicting the core DLP market will do somewhere around $100M $60M-80M this year. No lower than $80M $55M and not higher than $120M $100M, but probably closer to $90-$100M $60-$70M. If we add in products with DLP features that aren’t pure plays, this grows to no more than $180M. In other words, the entire DLP market is, at most, about half of what Symantec paid for Vontu. I’ll talk more about the future of DLP at some point, but the big vendors that win will be those which see DLP as a strategic acquisition for a future platform base around content-aware security (and maybe more than security). The losers will be the ones which buy just to get into the game or add a feature to an existing product line. We’ve hit the point where I don’t expect to see more than one or two acquisitions before the end of the year, and I doubt either of those will be as big as even the PortAuthority/Websense deal ($80M), never mind Vontu/Symantec. It’s possible we’ll see one more near the $100M range, but I suspect nothing until next year. As such it’s a good time to reflect on the acquisitions over the past eighteen months and figure out which ones might be more successful than others. Disclaimer: Although I currently have business relationships with a few DLP vendors, none of those relationships precludes me from giving my honest opinions. My position is that even if I lose some business in the short term (which I don’t expect), in the long run it’s far more important for me to retain my reputation for accuracy and objectivity. I’ll discuss these in roughly chronological order, but I’m too lazy to look up the exact dates: McAfee/Onigma: McAfee acquired a small Israeli startup that specialized in endpoint DLP fairly early on. Onigma was unproven in the market and pre-acquisition I didn’t talk to any production references. Some of my Israeli contacts considered the technology interesting. McAfee now offers DLP as a combined network/endpoint solution, but based on the customers I’ve talked with it’s not very competitive as a stand-alone solution. It seems to be reasonable at protecting basic data like credit card numbers, and might be a good add-on if you just want basic DLP and already use the McAfee product line. It lacks content discovery or all-channel network protection, limiting its usefulness if you want a complete solution. I need to admit that this is the product I am least familiar with and I welcome additional information or criticism of this analysis. Overall, McAfee has a long way to go to be really competitive in DLP. Onigma got them into the game, but that’s about it. Rating: thumb slightly down. Websense/PortAuthority: Before the Vontu deal, PortAuthority was the one raising eyebrows when Websense acquired them for $80M. When they were still Vidius, I didn’t consider the product competitive, but a year after they injected some cash and changed the name the product became very solid with a couple unique features and good unstructured data capabilities. My initial evaluation was a thumbs up- Websense had the channels and exiting market for some good upsell, and their endpoint agent could be a good platform for the PortAuthority technology to extend DLP onto workstations (they do use technology from Safend, but some of the features of the Websense agent make it potentially a better option). The challenge, as you’ll see in some of these other deals, is that DLP is a different sell, to a different buying center, and a different way of looking at security. Nearly one year later I think Websense is still struggling a bit and Q4 numbers, when released, will be extremely telling. The Content Protection Suite is an opportunity for Websense to move away from a more commoditized market (web filtering) and build a strong base for long term growth, but we have yet to see them fully execute in that direction. I’ve always considered this one a smart acquisition, but I worry a bit that the execution is faltering. Q4 will be a critical one for Websense, and 2008 an even more critical year since the initial integration pains should be over. Rating: thumb slightly up, able to go in either direction based on Q4. EMC/Tablus: Tablus was an early visionary in the market and, with PortAuthority, one of the top two technologies for working with unstructured data (as opposed to credit card/Social Security numbers). Despite a good core technology (and one of the first endpoint agents, via early acquisition) they faltered significantly on execution. The product suffered from integration and UI issues, and we didn’t see them in as many evaluations as some of the others. That said, the EMC acquisition (undisclosed numbers, but rumored in the $40M range) is one of the smarter ones in the market. EMC/RSA is the biggest threat in