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Risk Management: Proto-Science

Rich June 13, 2013 1 Comment

Alex Hutton has been on the leading edge of IT security risk management as long as I have known him. He has a new blog, and if you don’t think we can ever quantify risk, you need to read this post The next age of risk management, science, & craftsmanship: And that’s the crux of the third age, the move to what I’ve past referred to as a Modern Approach to Risk Management (borrowing heavily from the white page of the same name). Forward thinking programs are blending things like fraud analytics, InfoSec controls, and risk modeling so that there is no longer a boundary between these disciplines. Even folks who are grumpy sticks in the mud about risk, big data and so forth have had to acknowledge the benefits of at least basic “Data Science” methods. Alex is using some of these techniques in the real world. I have always challenged any quantitative risk modeler to show me a model that consistently and reasonably accurately predicts security outcomes. A few people are close, but not likely using any of the models you have been taught. Alex and some others, including Jack Jones, are taking a scientific approach and slowly making progress. I expect that some day during my career a model will pass my risk management test, thanks to their hard work. That will change our profession dramatically. Share:

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We are all guilty of something

Rich June 13, 2013 1 Comment

Moxie Marlinspike has a must-read editorial over at Wired: For instance, did you know that it is a federal crime to be in possession of a lobster under a certain size? It doesn’t matter if you bought it at a grocery store, if someone else gave it to you, if it’s dead or alive, if you found it after it died of natural causes, or even if you killed it while acting in self defense. You can go to jail because of a lobster. If the federal government had access to every email you’ve ever written and every phone call you’ve ever made, it’s almost certain that they could find something you’ve done which violates a provision in the 27,000 pages of federal statues or 10,000 administrative regulations. You probably do have something to hide, you just don’t know it yet. I’ve mostly stayed away from the recent NSA news because it isn’t infosec per se. But here’s the thing: private businesses are collecting what are essentially our innermost thoughts (search engines, email, writing, what you read online, etc.) – never mind our physical locations and physical actions. If someone in a position of power decides to look at you they will find something. I recently had a friend threatened, very directly, merely for speaking out against something innocuous in a public forum. I support our government and law enforcement, but I also believe in privacy and appropriate checks and balances in the system. The NSA likely hasn’t done anything illegal, but the laws themselves are the issue. These are good people doing the job we put before them, but we neglected to have the serious social discussion about the potential consequences first. I will step down off the soapbox now. Share:

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