Update: Thanks to Windexh8er (who provides good information despite being far more inflammatory than he needs to, what’s up with that?) Iran is up and the traffic report is wrong.
Another cable is down in the Middle East, and Iran is now offline. News stories indicate the cables are relatively new, and odds of simultaneous component failure are low.
This can’t be seismic activity or we’d see other reports from scientists (kind of hard to hide earthquakes and volcanos these days).
The odds are inching towards deliberate tampering, but I’m not going to go all crazy with conspiracy theories yet. There could still be other explanations. And no, I don’t think this is the CIA with black submarines. If we have that capability, which I’m sure we do, we wouldn’t blow it by screwing with cables during Super Bowl weekend just to annoy people. It’s too strategically important a capability to tip our hand without a compelling, immediate cause.
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9 Replies to “Fifth Cable Down, Iran Offline, Coincidence Meter Drops”
Courtesy Robert Graham over at Errata Security (http://erratasec.blogspot.com/2008/02/cable-cut-conspiracy.html):
8) “Here is a better conspiracy: it was caused by former cyber-czar Richard Clarke. He wrote a fictional cyberthriller (“Breaking Point”) that began with Russian terrorists blowing up transatlantic cables. I’‘m thinking that he got a subprime loan that is about to be foreclosed upon, so he cut a few undersea cables in order to drum up new sales for his book. Why did he choose mideast cables instead of the Atlantic cables his book describes? Easy: he didn’‘t want to prevent Europeans from ordering his book on Amazon.com. I submit to you that this conspiracy theory makes as much sense as any other, and that the government needs to locate Clarke quickly and interrogate him on the matter.”
7) The cables were cut by JJ Adams to promote his sequel, “Cloverfield II; Sea Monsters Gone Wild”.
Given prior history with the US and the Bush administration, I would not be surprised (conspiratorially) to learn that the US caused was involved with the outages. I have a few competing theories:
1) The NSA did it. They’‘re causing the cables to go offline so that they can install wiretaps. What’s the likelihood that someone would find a well-placed wiretap on an undersea cable?
2) Israel did it. They’‘re tired of letting the Arab countries prosper, so figured taking them offline would have an impact.
3) The Federal Reserve did it. They’‘re annoyed that the only solution to prevent the recession from becoming a recession was to accept money from sovereign wealth funds; most of which were sourced from the Middle East.
4) Iran / Radical Islamists did it. The flow of information has been too free in and out of the Middle East, causing people to think freely and consider alternatives to fundamentalism.
5) The CIA did it. They couldn’‘t track and capture bin Laden and co., so the next best thing was to cut their Internet access so that we won’‘t hear any more taped announcements.
6) The military-industrial complex did it. They’‘d say it was to protect and regrow the economy, but the reality is that they are tired of customer service calls being forwarded to India.
Ok, enough theories for now. I’‘m sure people can come up with other better ones (each presidential candidate could be blamed, or their respective parties, etc). 🙂
Tue, February 05, 2008 10:56pm
I wouldn’‘t be surprised if some populists in the ME use this to spread rumors that the CIA did this and did it themselves. It could also be a done prior to a larger broader attack to prevent news from getting out from the region. Who knows.
Thanks… 🙂
The only good news I’‘ve seen off of Slashdot in the past month or two has been the article on the release of TrueCrypt 5.0, which actually happened to be today as well. Now with full disk encryption for M$ machines. At least OS X support is finally here… I’‘ll get what I can take anyway!
Right, there is something obviously wrong with the whole situation. I find it impossible that one ship has dragged an anchor that far without realizing it (most of those cargo ships have so much efficiency automation it would have been caught right away). I don’‘t believe it’s the USG splicing either—they’‘d do it with a little more tact than this. And most of the projects of data stealing that I’‘ve been privied to with regards to oversea projects go for reliable vantage points. The undersea thing is just not the best way for them to steal data if that’s their motive…
Nope, you’‘ve been helpful, which is why I never edit your comments. And apology appreciated.
I saw it on Schneier before /.
With both those sites reporting, and me checking the traffic meter myself, I considered it good enough to post.
Aside from the Iran bit- I’‘m looking forward to seeing the real cause of all these cable outages. Leaving Iran aside, it still smells funny.
I can be inflammatory in given situations for the following reasons:
1) Anybody posts a Slashdot, Digg, Reddit, etc… story without validating it some other way.
2) If there is more than 12″ of new snow on the ground especially while I’‘m on out-of-state travel for a client.
3) I’‘ve read the same mistruth 80 times in the past 5 minutes and end up posting a comment on your site first.
🙂
Sorry, I’‘ll try to do some yoga or Zen-like meditation prior to posting anymore. I’‘m really not that bad. Most of the time anyway!
Post updated.
No need to be a jerk about it, I checked two sources before posting. Care to learn some manners since I seem to manage to treat you with respect?
Care to do any research before spreading more of the FUD?
http://www.renesys.com/blog/2008/02/attention_iran_is_not_disconne_1.shtml
Iran is *NOT* offline. Whoever uses the Internet Weather Report or whatever it’s called does not understand network fundamentals. They only do ICMP checks against one router in IRAN…
Geez.